The energy transition: A journey fraught with change

“Scotland has been a leader in renewable energy. If we can align our ambition with actionable strategies, there is no doubt we can continue to set the standard for others to follow.

The energy industry is in a state of flux. As someone who has spent decades working in Scotland's renewable energy sector, I’ve witnessed first-hand just how dynamic and unpredictable this industry can be. But even I find myself awestruck by the pace of change we are experiencing now - a pace that feels exhilarating, but also deeply challenging.

We were full of enthusiasm when renewables burst onto the scene. Governments, individuals, industries, and communities were galvanized by the vision of a cleaner, greener future. Yet today, as we look back, it is worth asking: were we victims of our own early enthusiasm? In our rush to transition, we overlooked a critical question - how would we pay for this transformation, and, just as importantly, how would we make it affordable for everyone?

Affordability means different things to different people. For a working family, it’s about keeping monthly energy bills manageable. For a pensioner, it’s about making ends meet when retirement savings are tied to investments that are often beyond their control. 

For businesses, including the construction and energy sectors, affordability is increasingly about balancing the cost of retrofitting buildings in the context of their capital value. Retrofitting, as we know it today, is often the unsustainable solution. We cannot sacrifice our infrastructure for the sake of meeting net-zero targets if doing so destroys economic value.

At the same time, we see global industries feeling the strain. The German car industry, once the gold standard, is now slowing dramatically under the weight of energy transition costs. This is not a uniquely German problem; it’s a global challenge demanding urgent solutions.

Compounding this is the alarming rollback on green commitments by major industries, especially oil and gas companies. Instead of leading the way, many have found it more lucrative to stick with the status quo. It’s disheartening and reminds us that energy independence must become a central focus if we are to ensure the resilience of our energy systems.

China’s dominance in the solar industry only underscores this. With a 90% share in global solar production and controlling over 70% of rare earth minerals, the balance of power is looking skewed.

In Scotland, the concept of a “just transition” became a rallying cry. It was supposed to ensure no one was left behind in the switch to renewables. Yet it feels like the rhetoric has far outpaced reality.

One bright spot has been the farming industry. Farmers across Scotland continue to embrace renewable energy solutions - installing solar to achieve energy independence and generating surplus energy as a new crop. Their resilience and adaptability offer a glimpse of what is possible when innovation meets determination. 

Despite these challenges, innovation in the energy sector gives me hope. Companies like Octopus Energy are introducing disruptive models such as Zero Bills, which could redefine how we think about energy consumption, generation and cost. At Forster Group, we’ve been working hard to ensure our integrated roofing, solar and battery solutions remain accessible and sustainable across Scotland. 

The energy industry is moving faster than ever, and it’s increasingly challenging to keep ahead. But one thing is clear: we need collaboration - between policymakers, regulators, industry leaders, and consumers - to navigate these turbulent times. Policymakers must ensure consistency and accountability to green commitments, while industry needs to double down on affordable, scalable solutions. And for individuals, encouraged to make energy-conscious choices, the ripple effect can extend far beyond one household.

Scotland has been a leader in renewable energy. If we can align our ambition with actionable strategies, there is no doubt we can continue to set the standard for others to follow. 

John Forster, is Founder and Chair of Forster Group